What is Scalar
Prediction markets beyond yes or no.
Overview
Scalar is a prediction market that can resolve to any value between $0 and $10.
"How long will BTC stay between $95k–$105k this week?"
The payout increases every second BTC stays inside the range.
You buy at $4.00. BTC stays in range most of the week. Resolution: $7.10. Profit: $3.10 per contract.
Binary markets can only pay you for being right. Scalar can also pay you for being close.
How It's Different
Traditional prediction markets are binary. You either win the full payout or lose everything. Scalar resolves on a continuous scale between $0 and $10:
- Proportional payouts. You profit based on how close you are, not just whether you picked the right side.
- One market, not dozens. All traders are in one order book instead of scattered across many separate markets. More liquidity, better prices.
- True price discovery. The market price tells you what the crowd actually expects the outcome to be, not just a yes/no probability.
Traditional prediction markets
"Will ETH be above $5k?" → Yes or No
"Will ETH be above $4k?" → Yes or No
"Will ETH be above $3k?" → Yes or No
Three markets. Three order books. Fragmented liquidity.
Scalar
"Where will ETH land in the $2k–$6k range?"
→ resolves to any value from $0 to $10
One market. One order book. One position.
How It Works
Every market has a Long side and a Short side.
Pick a side
Long = you think the outcome will be high (closer to $10).
Short = you think the outcome will be low (closer to $0).
Share prices move between $0 and $10 based on what traders collectively expect.
Trade
Buy or sell shares at the current market price. You can exit anytime before resolution, no lockups.
Get paid
When the market resolves:
- Long shares pay out the resolution value. You profit when the outcome is higher than your entry.
- Short shares pay out $10 minus the resolution value. You profit when the outcome is lower than your entry.
No margin calls, no liquidation. Your P&L is the difference between your entry price and the resolution value.
Positions & Collateral
On Scalar, you don't hold separate "Yes" and "No" shares. You hold a single position that is either Long (positive) or Short (negative).
Each contract on Scalar is $10, not $1. Unlike traditional prediction markets which use $1 contracts, Scalar uses $10 per contract.
Every position is fully backed by USDC at the time of entry. Scalar never takes custody of user funds.
When a Short is opened, the seller deposits $10 collateral. The buyer's purchase price is paid to the seller upfront, so the seller's net cost is $10 minus what they received. At resolution, the seller gets back whatever remains based on the outcome.
If you want to close your position, just take the opposite side. Long + Short cancel out and your collateral is returned immediately. No waiting for the market to resolve to get your money back.